Usapang Social Security System (SSS) Part 1

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Usapang SSS
Medyo mainit na isyu ngayon ang pag-veto ni PNoy sa pag-taas sa Social Security System (SSS) benefits. Medyo maanghang na nga ang palitan ng salita sa ilang mga forum. At may ilan na ding nagtanong kung ano tingin ko sa isyung ito.

Una, gusto ko lang malaman kung lahat ng mga nagrereklamo sa hindi pagtaas ng benepisyo ay maayos na nagbabayad ng mga premium at mga INUTANG nila sa Social Security System (SSS). Kasi kung hindi, siguro dapat tumahimik na lang tayo. :) Bago po natin siguro ipaglaban ang “karapatan” natin sa mas malaking benepisyo eh tugunan po muna natin ang mga RESPONSIBILIDAD natin dito. :)

Ngayon, kung ikaw yung isa sa nakararaming mga Pilipino na maayos na nagbabayad at umaasa sa Social Security System (SSS), medyo may masamang balita ako sa iyo: Ang sistema ng Social Security System (SSS), sa kasalukuyang pamamalakad nito, ay halos siguradong magkukulang. Bakit?

Kasi ang sistema ng Social Security System(SSS) ay nangangailangan ng maraming mga batang nagcocontribute para may makuha ang mga matatanda. Hindi ito sustainable kapag mas madami nang matandang kumukuha ng Pension kaysa sa mga batang nagcocontribute dito.

Yung mga investments kamo? Nagkakamali din mga fund managers niyan. (Tignan niyo na lang kung anong stocks ang binili ng Social Security System (SSS) at kung ano naging performance ng mga ito.) Nalulugi din mga investments nila at lumalala ang pagkalugi sa oras na marami nang miyembro ang kumukuha ng pension. (Ganun din kapag hindi nagbayad ng maayos ang mga umutang dito.)

Kung gusto mo ng halimbawa, tignan mo ang nangyayari sa United States (U.S.) at Japan. Sa Japan, ang daming matatandang umaasa sa mga benepisyo mula sa gobyerno at kinukulang na ang pera ng gobyerno nila. Ganun din sa Amerika. Sa tingin ninyo, bakit NAPILITAN si Obama na baguhin ang Health Care system ng United States (U.S.)? Kasi ang United States (U.S.) mismo ay kapos na sa pera. Ngayon, naniniwala ka ba na ang mga politikong nagpapalakad ng Social Security System (SSS) dito ay mas magaling pa kesa sa mga katulad nila sa United States (U.S.) at Japan? :D

So ano pwedeng gawin?

IKAW ang magplano para sa retirement mo. Nakakatawa nga minsan na ang mga taong nagsasabing, bobo, tanga at walang silbi ang gobyerno natin ay siya ring mga taong umaasa na aalagaan sila ng gobyerno. Weird di ba?
Hindi mo alam kung ano gagawin mo? Mag-aral ka at isabuhay mo ang na-aral mo. Yung lang naman sagot diyan eh.

Sa huling sabi, nasa kamay mo ang kapangyarihang paghandaan ang retirement mo kaya gamitin mo ito. Huwag mong hayaang mauwi sa pagsisisi ang pagreretiro mo.

‪#‎aralmunabagoinvest‬

Sa ibang balita:
Ciara Sotto, iniwan na ang asawa at bumalik sa mga magulang kasama ang 11-buwan anak na lalaki.

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Ano ang “Bear Market”?

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BY AYA LARAYA

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Dala ng patuloy na pagbagsak ng Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) Index, marami ang nagtatanong kung “Bear Market” na ba ito. Merong sumasang-ayon, at merong hindi. Kaya, ano ba talaga ang “Bear Market” na yan?

Ang depinisyon ng Bear Market ay ang malaki at patuloy na pagbaba ng presyo ng stocks at ang pananatili nito sa mababang lebel sa mahabang panahon. Gaano kalaking pagbaba? Higit sa 20%. Gaano katagal? Medyo may pagtatalo pero ang kadalasang sinasabi ay higit sa 3 buwan.

Ngayon, gamitin natin ang depinisyong yan sa Philippine Stock Exchange(PSE) Index. Kapag ginamit ang all-time high ng Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) na 8,136 noong 2015 at binawasan ito ng 20% — 6,508 ang makukuha mo. At dahil binasag na ng Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) Index ang lebel na ito, pwede na simulang sabihin na Bear Market ito.

Ang titignan na lang natin ngayon ay kung mananatili sa mga lebel na ito ang Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) Index sa mga susunod na buwan. Kung oo, kumpirmasyon nga yan na Bear Market na nga ito.

Syempre, ang susunod na tanong eh, kailan muling aakyat ang market pero para masagot yan ay kailangan munang maintindihan ang dahilan kung BAKIT ba nalaglag ito. :)

#AralMunaBagoInvest

Sa ibang balita:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens is now #3 movie in terms of all-time box-office. :)

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Break-even oil prices in the Middle East

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Season’s Greetings everyone. Haven’t posted in a while but now that school’s out, here is something to think about for 2016.

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Barring a rather major rally, it looks like the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) will close down for the year. It is currently down over 5% for the year so malamang na marami sa mga taong nagsimulang mag-invest sa stock market sa taong ito ay nalulugi. Kung isa ka sa mga iyan at medyo nababahala ka na eh dapat sigurong pag-isipan mong muli kung angkop ba sa iyo ang stock market. smile emoticon Ang mga panahong ito ay bahagi talaga ng stocks so kailangang tanggapin at pagplanuhan mo ito ng maayos. Hindi palagi ang pag-akyat ng market.  

That being said, here is a picture that is causing a LOT of concern in world financial markets. While we DO benefit from lower oil prices, oil-exporting countries suffer. And the worry is that MANY Filipinos — especially OFW’s in the Middle East depend on healthy oil prices for their jobs and consequently, so do their families back home.

Ang tanong ngayon is kung humina or bumagsak ang ekonomiya ng mga oil-exporters sa Middle-East, ano mangyayari sa mga Pinoy dun? May mababalikan ba sila dito? At kapag kumonti na ang mga Pinoy na nagpapadala ng pera dito, paano na ang ekonomiya natin?  

Feel free to share — especially if you have friends or family working in the Middle-East. Dapat maghanda talaga sila dahil dito.

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A Time to Sow

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As we head into December, people everywhere are beginning to take stock of how 2015 has been for them.
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Given that the Philippine Stock Exchange Index is currently several hundred points lower today, it is no surprise that many people who started investing earlier this year are having second thoughts. After all, it was barely six months ago that the Philippine Stock Exchange once more set a new all-time high and things looked good. Nowadays, the increasing number of “long-term investors” seems to point to a gloomy outlook for 2016.

And I would have to say that my own outlook for 2016 would be more bear than bull at this point – especially for the latter half of 2016. Why? Lots of reasons but the two main ones are the following: Politics and Interest Rates.

POLITICS: While the first half of 2016 will surely benefit from election spending, the latter half will most likely not be as good. This is because, unless Mar Roxas wins, there will definitely be major turnover in pretty much every government entity as the new President will begin replacing P-Noy’s people. There will also be electoral protests by the dozen as losing candidates will shout out their usual protests of being cheated. And this is pretty much the best case scenario as the worst case will include violence and massive fraud. All in all, I really do not see business moving forward much as people have to try and figure out how to work with whoever gets elected.

INTEREST RATES: When the U.S. Federal Reserve (Counter part of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) finally raises interest rates, local rates will be forced upwards as well. This would then lead to a higher cost of borrowing for both businesses and consumers. And this is a major concern for me as many Pinoys, both here and abroad, have borrowed large sums of money to finance the acquisition of cars and condos over the past decade. The question now would be whether these people will be able to continue making payments when interest rates rise. What is even more worrying for me is that one highly regarded international property consultant has already published a report saying that condo sales and rentals have negative prospects for the next 2 years.

So what do we do?

First off, ENJOY the coming Christmas season in moderation. Just as you know how much you can eat or drink before you start getting wasted, you should also know how much you can spend before you get into trouble. Do NOT spend all of your 2016 savings before you’ve actually saved them.

Second, prepare for the tough times. Study and invest wisely – especially when prices of many assets (and not just stocks) go down. Example: Gold is now almost 50% lower compared to 2011 / 2012 prices. Real estate prices are also expected to correct so if you are truly serious in accumulating assets cheaply for the long run, then 2016 may be a good starting point.

Third, get started. Yes, the coming days will be challenging but if you keep waiting for the “perfect” time to start, you will never end up doing anything.

As always “Aral MunaBago Invest” and Merry Christmas!

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10-20-70

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Many of us have already heard or are familiar with the 10-20-70 financial strategy.
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However, based on many conversations I have had with people, I get the feeling that while people almost unanimously agree that it is a good strategy; it is also quite difficult to actually execute consistently. Well, the interesting thing I have noticed is that most, if not all, of the people who find difficulty with the strategy share one thing in common: They started at 10-20-70. [Read more…]

June 3, 2015

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One of the bigger ongoing stories in investing is if U.S. markets are overvalued at this point and thereby headed for a correction or if there is still room for more growth.

Here is a rather nice discussion on the topic from two economists in the U.S.: CLICK HERE

Of course, ang tanong is if those arguments also apply to the Philippines.

Well, here are some things for you to ponder:

1. Greece may very well default in the coming months — if not this weekend. This is the most immediate issue.

2. The U.S. FED may raise rates as early as this September. If Greece is the most immediate issue, this is potentially the most significant as it will definitely impact investing behavior in the coming years.

3. Local GDP greatly missed estimates — thereby calling into question the fundamentals of the local economy.

4. Speaking of the local economy, we are heading into what is fast shaping to be a very EXPENSIVE Presidential Election. Historically, political spending has proven to be a boost to consumption as money is spent prior to, and during the election process.

5. Foreign selling has been quite noticeable in the local markets. Leading to significant drops in the big names such as AC, TEL and SM. Time to buy? Sell? Stay away?

6. The August Ghost Month phenomena leading into potentially the first FED rate hike is an interesting double-whammy for local equities.

So what do YOU do?

1. ‪#‎aralmunabagoinvest‬ : educate yourselves about the above issues. DO your own analysis. Wag masyado umasa sa social media. Avoid using the “DAW Theory”. That is the best way for you to still be able to sleep at night.

2. Take a stand. Whether Bull or Bear: Put your money where your mouth is.

3. Pray

Overloaded

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4 Steps to Making the Right Stock Market Decisions

When I started in the market years ago, one of the biggest challenges was getting reliable information on listed firms. I remember having to queue for photocopies of the latest reports and having to bring them to different traders. Even something as simple as the day’s stock quotes was a chore as the data would only be available by mid-afternoon.Nowadays though, the shoe is on the other foot as market participants are constantly bombarded with loads of information.  In fact, we have gone from a situation wherein people have been unable to act due to a lack of information to one wherein people are paralyzed by too MUCH data.

Take today’s trading for instance. Prior to the opening of the market, you had two articles giving two very disparate images. The first place talked about the booming Chinese market while the second painted a pretty gloomy picture of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

So, in that situation, who do you follow?

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[Read more…]

Ok Pa Ba?

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Ngayong malapit na naman sa 8,000 ang PSE Index, marami ang nag-iisip kung ok pa bang pumasok sa stocks. Nakakatakot nga naman kung papasok ka at biglang bubulusok pababa ang merkado. Pero kung hindi ka naman pumasok ngayon at tuluyan namang tumaas ang index ay siguradong manghihinayang ka din. So, ano ba pwede mong gawin?

Ang maikling sagot ay: Mag Peso-Cost Averaging ka ng isang magandang kumpanya. :)

Pero epektibo ba talaga ito?

Para sa mas mahabang sagot, balikan natin ang kasaysayan ng PSE mismo sa nakaraang 30 taon.

Pansinin ninyo yung index noong 1987, 1989, 1997, 2007 at 2013.  [Read more…]

April 20, 2015

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Kung ngayon ka pa lang nakakaranas ng ganitong pagbagsak sa stock market, ito ang ilang bagay na pwede mong pag-isipan

1. Bahagi talaga ito ng proseso ng stocks. Hindi laging umaakyat ang market. May mga panahong nalalaglag ito ng malaki. At sa totoo lang, hindi pa din gaanong malaki ang mga laglag na ito kung titignan mo ang kasaysayan ng stocks sa Pinas.

2. WALANG nakakasiguro kung hanggang saan o hanggang kailan itong pagbabang ito. Malay mo baka bukas umakyat na. ;) Pwede ring malaglag lalo though.

3. Hindi ito panahon para biglang maging “long-term” investor ka kung nagsimula ka bilang trader. Kung trader ka talaga, disiplinahin mo ang sarili mong mag-cut-loss. Bahagi yan ng pagiging tunay na trader. :)
[Read more…]