June 3, 2015

One of the bigger ongoing stories in investing is if U.S. markets are overvalued at this point and thereby headed for a correction or if there is still room for more growth.

Here is a rather nice discussion on the topic from two economists in the U.S.: CLICK HERE

Of course, ang tanong is if those arguments also apply to the Philippines.

Well, here are some things for you to ponder:

1. Greece may very well default in the coming months — if not this weekend. This is the most immediate issue.

2. The U.S. FED may raise rates as early as this September. If Greece is the most immediate issue, this is potentially the most significant as it will definitely impact investing behavior in the coming years.

3. Local GDP greatly missed estimates — thereby calling into question the fundamentals of the local economy.

4. Speaking of the local economy, we are heading into what is fast shaping to be a very EXPENSIVE Presidential Election. Historically, political spending has proven to be a boost to consumption as money is spent prior to, and during the election process.

5. Foreign selling has been quite noticeable in the local markets. Leading to significant drops in the big names such as AC, TEL and SM. Time to buy? Sell? Stay away?

6. The August Ghost Month phenomena leading into potentially the first FED rate hike is an interesting double-whammy for local equities.

So what do YOU do?

1. ‪#‎aralmunabagoinvest‬ : educate yourselves about the above issues. DO your own analysis. Wag masyado umasa sa social media. Avoid using the “DAW Theory”. That is the best way for you to still be able to sleep at night.

2. Take a stand. Whether Bull or Bear: Put your money where your mouth is.

3. Pray

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