Tuwing may nangyayari sa market — ke umakyat o malaglag (usually laglag), ang sinasabing dahilan ay “Tapering”. Ano ba talaga ang “Tapering” at bakit ganun na lang kalakas ang epekto nito sa atin? Ganito kasi yan…
For the past several YEARS, the U.S. government has been printing U.S. dollars in HUUUUUGGGEEEEE amounts. Trillions and trillions of dollars. They called this program “Quantitative Easing”. Now since dumami ang supply ng dolyares, natural na malalaglag ang halaga nito — Law of Supply and Demand. So kung may hawak kang dolyar, gugustuhin mong palitan ito dahil you EXPECT the U.S. to print more of it and if they continue to do so, then the VALUE of the dollar you hold will decrease. Kaya, ang ginawa ng marami, kinonvert ang U.S. dollar nila into other currencies and bought assets in those other currencies. That way, if the dollar continued to weaken, kahit walang change yung halaga ng asset dun sa currency, dahil sa pagbaba ng dollar eh kikita ang isang tao ON A DOLLAR BASIS.
Halimbawa: Bumili ka ng Jollibee share at 100 pesos a share nung panahon na ang palitan ay 50 to 1. You had $1,000. You converted it to 50k pesos and used that money to buy 500 JFC shares. After 4 years, sabihin nating 100 pesos pa din ang presyo ng JFC. Hindi ito tumaas o bumaba. Kaso, dahil sa dami ng dollars na inimprenta ng U.S. government, ang exchange rate ay 40 to 1 na. So, kung ibenta mo yung shares mo, 50k pesos makukuha mo — talo ka pa sa inflation. Kaso, hindi naman peso ang gagastusin mo kundi dollars at kapag ipinalit mo yung 50k pesos mo into dollars, makakatanggap ka ng $1,250. Kumita ka pa din ON A DOLLAR BASIS.
Ngayon, isipin natin kung ano mangyayari kapag ihinto ang “Quantitative Easing”? Kung sa tingin ng tao na hindi na dadagdagan ang supply ng dolyares, malamang eh hindi na nila ito gugustuhing ipalit pa sa ibang currency. Put another way, this means that people will begin to ask for more money in order to be convinced to change their dollars. This will then lead to a strengthening of the dollar compared to other currencies.
Example: Lets say you had $1,000 early this year and converted it to pesos. Let’s say that the rate when you converted was 40 to 1 — you got 40,000 pesos. You then invested this in a stock at 100 pesos a share so you had 400 shares. Fast forward to today, lets ASSUME that the stock is still at 100 pesos but the exchange rate has become 44 to 1. If you sell your shares, you still get 40,000 pesos (less comms) so parang ok lang. But if you convert that 40k pesos back into dollars, you will only get $909.09 — talo ka ng almost 10%
So nasaan naman diyan ang “Tapering”? Simply put, “Tapering” is the name they have given to the process wherein they will slowly cut back on the amount of dollars they will print.
Tuloy, if a fund manager has been invested in the Philippines for the past several years, MALAMANG kumita na siya on a Peso basis. But, he will ultimately be evaluated on a DOLLAR basis so in order to protect his Dollar gains, he has to sell Peso assets — especially if he believes that the exchange rate will continue to move in favor of the dollar.
So what does that mean for you? As a trader, things don’t look good since SHORTING is not really allowed in the PSE. At least not in the way most people believe it should be done. As an investor, you should begin to consider whether your company will benefit in an economic situation wherein the U.S. economy is growing and the U.S. dollar is strengthening. If they will benefit then HOLD or MAYBE even BUY. If not, then SELL.
As always, ARAL MUNA BAGO INVEST.